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Tariffs On, Tariffs Off—Is Uncertainty the Real Strategy?

Author

Feranmi Akeredolu
March 08, 2025

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There’s been a dizzying number of tariff announcements from U.S. President Trump since January, but it looks like the 25% tariff on Canadian goods is here to stay.

Honestly, the back-and-forth—tariffs on, tariffs off—is just as damaging as the tariffs themselves. The uncertainty is hitting businesses hard. In February, we saw the first major casualty. Even before the tariffs took effect (they were delayed by a month), the CEO of Montréal-based textile manufacturer SRTX said on February 5th that the company would cut 40% of its workforce in anticipation of the new U.S. trade measures.

A survey by Startup Canada gauging the impact on entrepreneurs paints an even bleaker picture. More than 70% of respondents expect “reduced sales and profit margins due to rising material costs, tariffs, and customer resistance to higher prices,” which could force them to lay off employees or scale back operations amid growing economic uncertainty.

But wait—hold on. As I was writing this, the tariffs were suspended again. For March, at least. They lasted less than three days. According to the Associated Press, roughly 62% of Canadian imports could still be affected.

“The United States has agreed to suspend tariffs on CUSMA-compliant exports from Canada until April 2nd,” Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc said in a post on X, shortly after Trump confirmed the delay.

“In response, Canada will not proceed with the second wave of tariffs on $125 billion worth of U.S. products until April 2nd, while we continue working toward the removal of all tariffs.”

The silver lining? The Canadian government is rolling out a $6 billion aid package to help affected businesses, along with temporary adjustments to employment insurance. About $5 billion of that will be distributed over two years to help exporters find new markets beyond the U.S. Another $500 million will be available through a Business Development Bank of Canada loan program for companies directly impacted by the tariffs.

But the real issue remains: uncertainty. How do businesses plan for the future when trade policy shifts by the week? How do investors make confident decisions when the ground keeps shifting beneath them?

And at what point does all this unpredictability do more harm than the tariffs themselves? It isn’t far-fetched to think that might be the goal.

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